JUSTIN WOLFERS discusses a common problem for the economist bon vivant—people are always asking you what’s going to happen to such and such economic variable. Will the economy go into recession? Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? Should I sell my shares in Bear Stearns?
Very true. It’s no fun at all to have to admit to being an economist.
On the Venn diagram of ‘what people think of when they meet someone who introduces themselves as an economist’, macroeconomic stuff (inflation, unemployment) and finance (stocks, commodities, assets) are huge whopping great circles, much bigger than they are on the ‘what economists do’ diagram. Hence the point of this site, I suppose.
Anyway, here’s some advice:
Henceforth, when asked about oil prices, simply throw out some jargon, use phrases like “short-run volatility”, and then suggest that the price in three months’ time, or indeed a year, will be the same as it is today.
I love it.